我该如何编写运动模拟引擎 [英] How do I write a sports simulation engine

问题描述

我有一大队的统计数据，我想确定他们击败下一个对手的概率。有关每个团队的大量统计信息，包括结果与普通对手的统计数据。显然，任何以前的头对头结果都应该权衡最重要。接下来的结果将是普通对手的结果，最后是一般的比赛结果。



我不知道从哪里开始，除了我知道我需要拿出来一支球队的概率一支殴打球队B.我假设这个比例是一个百分比，所以A队预计在23.7％的时间内击败B队，他们最有可能输掉比赛。但是，例如，我会选择1到1000之间的数字，如果该数字大于或等于237，那么它们就会丢失等等......



任何一个例子，或者至少是一个说采取统计数据，乘以所玩游戏，乘以等等，加上系数......的首发，你可以看到我的数学知识，这几乎没有......

I have a boatload of stats for a team, and I want to determine the probability that they beat their next opponent. There's a wealth of statistical information about each team, INCLUDING statistics for results versus common opponents. Obviously, any previous head-to-head results should be weighed the most heavily. Next in line would be results versus common opponents, lastly, general match results.

I have no idea where to begin, other than I know I need to come up with the "probability" of a team A beating team B. I'm assuming that's on a percentage scale, so it team A is predicted to beat team B 23.7% of the time, they are most-likely going to lose. But for example, I'd then pick a number between 1 and 1000, and if that number is greater than or equal to 237, then they would lost, etc...

Any examples, or at least a starter that says "take stat a, multiply by games played, divided by blah, add coefficient...." you can see my math knowledge, which is close to nothing...

推荐答案

您可以从维基百科的ELO评级系统页面开始 [ ^ ]。

You could start form the "ELO rating system" page at Wikipedia[^].

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