模拟概率分布 - 学校项目 [英] Simulating probability distribution- School Project

问题描述

保险销售公司每天都会收到新的询问（线索）。它的呼叫中心通过打电话来处理这些线索。如果公司打电话，有60％的可能性将政策出售给新的领导（转换）。如果当天没有处理过一个导致，那么
就完全丢失了。公司每次转换收到R250。 

An insurance sales company gets new enquiries every day (leads). Its call centre handles these leads by phoning them back. There is a 60% chance of selling a policy to a new lead (conversion) IF the company phones back. If the a lead not handled on the day, it is completely lost. The company receives R250 per conversion. 

数据表包含全年（2016年）的数据。查询的数量在一周中的概率不同。服务时间遵循概率分布，但在一周的不同日期保持不变。模拟2017年
年10万次，并计算由于未跟进电话而错过转换的公司将损失多少。 2017年使用52周（每周5天）。

The data sheet contains data for a full year (2016). The number of enquiries differ in probability by the day of the week. The service times follow a probability distribution but it remains constant over the different days of the week. Simulate the 2017 year 100 000 times and calculate how much the company will lose from missed conversions due to calls not followed up. Use 52 weeks (5 days per week) for 2017.

推荐答案

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- Wayne

You'll elicit a lot more help and a lot less flak if you show that you have
actually made an effort to create this program. Describe your intended
approach/algorithm in prose and pseudo-code. Show the code you have written
so far, and describe precisely where it is that you are stuck.

If you just want suggestions as to how best to approach the task, please
state so. Otherwise, just posting the complete assignment description looks
like you're hoping someone will offer you a coded solution.

We don't mind helping students get past sticking points in their assignments
but we do mind being expected to do the bulk of the work for them. So the
more you can narrow down your request for assistance to a very particular
part of the assignment, the greater the likelihood that you'll get timely
and narrowly-focused suggestions.

- Wayne

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