将Web应用程序代替桌面应用程序? [英] Will web applications replace desktop applications?

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问题描述

威尔诸事云?如果是这样,在哪个方向?谷歌,齿轮?闪存,AIR,JavaFX的?

Will everything go to the cloud? If so, in which direction? Google-Gears? Flash,AIR,JavaFX?


推荐答案

我一直在问这个问题了近十年。在我的公司,我们构建和销售Windows和那些大致相同的事情的Web应用程序。四年前,我会告诉你,我们会支持Web应用程序的80-20现在。然而,在出货数量来看,我们仍然看好60-40赞成Windows的应用程序。

I've been asking this question for nearly a decade. In my business we build and sell both Windows and Web apps that do roughly the same thing. Four years ago I would have told you that we'd be 80-20 in favor of web apps by now. However, in terms of the numbers shipped, we are still about 60-40 in favor of the Windows apps.

虽然我曾经以为,真正的障碍软件的接受作为服务只是一个美好,更丰富的用户接口(Silverlight中,空气等将解决),我现在倾向于认为,欲望也有很多人谁只是preFER一次性购买和本地控制网络连接的订阅模式。因为这preference植根于价值的钱个人的看法,我不认为技术将尽快改变任何东西,因为我们的技术专家认为会。因此,我打赌了Windows应用程序和我们在一起比我们开发商将指望较长;再过10年最少。

While I once thought that the real barrier to the acceptance of software as a service was simply a desire for a better, richer user interface (which Silverlight, Air, etc. would solve), I'm now inclined to think that there are a lot of people who simply prefer a one-time purchase and local control over a web connected subscription model. Because this preference is rooted in personal perceptions of value for the money, I don't think that technology will change anything as quickly as we technologists think it will. Thus, I'd wager that Windows apps are with us for longer than we developers will ever expect; another 10 years at least.

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