ARIMA生产的斜率直线 [英] ARIMA produced slope straight line

问题描述

我对使用SARIMA模型是时间序列的新手，我按照教程建立了模型，并试图预测未来的趋势.事情在开始时进展顺利，但是当产生结果时，它显示了斜率直线.然后将其建立在Jupyter笔记本电脑上

I am new to the time series with using the SARIMA model, and I followed the tutorial to build the model and trying to forecast the future trend. The thing goes well at the beginning but when produced the results it shows the slope straight line. and I build it on the Jupyter NoteBook

首先，我检查了数据并以可视方式制作数据，但实际上，看起来似乎正确的数据之后，我试图更改P，D，Q的值并再次失败

First thing I checked my data, and make the data visually, but in fact, it seems the right data then I tried to change the values of P, D, Q and failed again

https://github.com/Dongmingguoguo/Prediciton

https://github.com/Dongmingguoguo/Prediciton 这是GitHub链接，请检查一下，我的期望是对未来3天进行预测.

https://github.com/Dongmingguoguo/Prediciton Here is the GitHub link please go to check and my expectancy is to make the forecast for the next 3days.

推荐答案

当您的数据没有很强的季节性并且模型难以预测那里的未来时，会发生这种情况，因为它仅取先前值的平均值并作为未来进行预测.在那里，你越来越直线了.

This happen when your data doesn't have strong seasonality and model finds difficult to predict the future there fore it simply take average of your previous values and predict as future. There fore you are getting straight line.

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