ARIMA 生产的斜率直线 [英] ARIMA produced slope straight line

问题描述

我是使用 SARIMA 模型的时间序列的新手，我按照教程构建模型并尝试预测未来趋势.事情一开始很顺利，但是当产生结果时，它显示斜率直线.我在 Jupyter NoteBook 上构建它

I am new to the time series with using the SARIMA model, and I followed the tutorial to build the model and trying to forecast the future trend. The thing goes well at the beginning but when produced the results it shows the slope straight line. and I build it on the Jupyter NoteBook

首先我检查了我的数据，并将数据可视化，但实际上，它看起来是正确的数据，然后我尝试更改 P、D、Q 的值并再次失败

First thing I checked my data, and make the data visually, but in fact, it seems the right data then I tried to change the values of P, D, Q and failed again

https://github.com/Dongmingguoguo/Prediciton

https://github.com/Dongmingguoguo/Prediciton这是 GitHub 链接，请前往查看，我的预期是对未来 3 天进行预测.

https://github.com/Dongmingguoguo/Prediciton Here is the GitHub link please go to check and my expectancy is to make the forecast for the next 3days.

推荐答案

当您的数据没有很强的季节性并且模型发现难以预测未来时会发生这种情况，因此它只需取您先前值的平均值并预测为未来.因此你得到的是直线.

This happen when your data doesn't have strong seasonality and model finds difficult to predict the future there fore it simply take average of your previous values and predict as future. There fore you are getting straight line.

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