Google Web Optimizer-赢得组合需要多长时间? [英] Google Web Optimizer -- How long until winning combination?

问题描述

我已经在 Google Web Optimizer 中运行了A/B测试达六个星期，但仍遥遥无期. Google仍在说:我们尚未收集到足够的数据来显示任何重要结果.当我们收集更多数据时，我们应该能够向您展示成功的组合."

I've had an A/B Test running in Google Web Optimizer for six weeks now, and there's still no end in sight. Google is still saying: "We have not gathered enough data yet to show any significant results. When we collect more data we should be able to show you a winning combination."

有什么方法可以告诉Google与您下定决心有多接近? (有人知道用什么算法来确定是否有高信心赢家"吗?)

Is there any way of telling how close Google is to making up its mind? (Does anyone know what algorithm does it use to decide if there's been any "high confidence winners"?)

根据Google帮助文档:

According to the Google help documentation:

有时候我们只需要更多数据即可 能够达到很高的水平 信心.经过测试的组合 通常需要约200次转换 让我们用 确定性.

Sometimes we simply need more data to be able to reach a level of high confidence. A tested combination typically needs around 200 conversions for us to judge its performance with certainty.

但是我们目前所有的转化都超过200个会话:

But all of our conversions have over 200 conversations at the moment:

230/4061(原始)
223/3937(版本1)
205/3984(版本2)
205/4007(版本3)

230 / 4061 (Original)
223 / 3937 (Variation 1)
205 / 3984 (Variation 2)
205 / 4007 (Variation 3)

要运行多长时间?

感谢您的帮助.

推荐答案

有什么方法可以告诉Google，要下定决心有多接近?

Is there any way of telling how close Google is to making up its mind?

您可以使用GWO计算器根据您提供的多种假设来帮助确定测试将花费多长时间.请记住，尽管您的测试组合之间可能不会存在显着差异，但在这种情况下，要确定哪种测试最佳将花费无限长的时间，因为不可能找到获胜者.

You can use the GWO calculator to help determine how long a test will take based on a number of assumptions that you provide. Keep in mind though that it is possible that there is not significant difference between your test combination, in which case a test to see which is best would take an infinite amount of time, because it is not possible to find a winner.

(有人知道用什么算法来确定是否有高信心赢家"吗?)

(Does anyone know what algorithm does it use to decide if there's been any "high confidence winners"?)

这是一个，但对于大多数(如果不是全部)统计测试，则有一个所谓的p值，它是获得与仅偶然观察到的结果一样极端的结果的概率. GWO测试一直运行到p值超过某个阈值(可能为5％)为止.更明确地说，GWO测试会一直运行到一个组合明显优于原始组合为止，这样，仅偶然出现一个结果的可能性就为5％.

That is a mystery, but with most, if not all, statistical tests, there is what's called a p-value which is the probability of obtaining a result as extreme as the one observed by chance alone. GWO tests run until the p-value passes some threshold, probably 5%. To be more clear, GWO tests run until a combination is significantly better than the original combination, such that the result only has a 5% chance of occurring by chance alone.

对于您的测试，似乎没有明显的赢家，这是平局.

For your test there appears to be no significant winner, it's a tie.

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