经济模拟的算法？ [英] An algorithm for economic simulation?

问题描述

我想创建一个游戏，玩家在游戏中以不同的价格制作不同的产品（称其为要约），并给他们一定数量的客户（如其要求）。

I would like to create a game where the players create differents products with different prices (call it offers), and I give them a certain number of customers (call it demands).

现在，我想要一种算法来确定每个参与者的市场份额。当然，我现在可以随机使用我的插件。但是在执行此操作之前，我更想问一下，因为我敢肯定很多人已经在我之前尝试过执行此操作！

Now, I want an algorithm to decid what's the market share of each players. Of course, I could just make mine right now, using random. But before doing this, I prefer to ask, because I'm sure that's a lot of people already tried to do this before me!

我的问题不是很精确，这是因为您的答案也不需要很精确；）

My question is not really precise, it's because your answer doesn't need to be precise too ;)

谢谢！

推荐答案

这实际上取决于您设置的变量以及要创建的市场的类型。您可以从下面的简单公式开始（将市场份额从根本上减少到利润问题）作为开始，之后我将介绍我所说的某种市场。

It really depends on the variables you have set up, and the kind of "market" you want to create. You could start with the following simple formula below (which fundamentally reduces market share to a question of profits) as a start, and I'll go through what I mean by "kind of market" after.

marketShare = totalCompanyProfit/allMoneyInProductCategory;
marketShare = ( (productSalePrice * demand)-(productManufactureCost * supply) ) / allMoneyInProductCategory;

在这里变得很有趣，因为市场类型由您对需求的定义决定。例如，假设产品是法拉利，而您要模拟的市场是刚果共和国，其人均GDP为189美元。

It gets interesting here because the "kind of market" is determined by your definition of demand. For example, say the product was ferraris, and the market you were trying to simulate was the Republic of Congo, which had a GDP of $189/capita.

targetMarketSize = (percentOfFittingDemographic * totalPopulation)
percentWhoHateYourProduct = AVERAGE( ( ABS(productVariable1 - variableIdeal1) / variableIdeal1 ), ( ABS(productVariable2 - variableIdeal2) / variableIdeal2 ), etc )
demand = (targetMarketSize) * ( 1- percentWhoHateYourProduct ) 

percentOfFittingDemographic是适合人口总数的百分比购买此类产品（即拥有足够可支配收入以支付100,000美元汽车的人）的人口统计数据，在上面的刚果示例中，可能是.001。

percentOfFittingDemographic is the percent of the population which fits into the demographic which would buy such a product (i.e people with enough disposable income to afford $100,000 car), which in the Congo example above could be something like .001 .

平均某些产品属性（productVariable）与理想值（variableIdeals）相对于理想值之差的绝对值的绝对值给出了将要关闭的总体百分比产品不是他们想要的。减去1可以得到要购买产品的人数的百分比，再乘以targetMarketSize可以得到想要购买产品的人数，即需求。如果产品是完美的，则它成为0的平均值，整个目标市场将成为该产品的用户。

The average of the absolute value of the difference of certain product attributes (productVariable) from their ideals (variableIdeals) over their ideals give the % of the population which are going to be turned off by the product not being what they want. Subtracting that from 1 gives the percent of people who DO want to buy your product, and multiplying that by targetMarketSize gives you the people who want to buy your product- ie demand. If the product is perfect, it becomes the average of 0's, and the whole target market becomes a user of the product.

一个人也可以在平均值上加权重，例如，市场更喜欢较低的价格，而不是较大的屏幕尺寸。要暗示某个属性中的更多属性会增加人们对该产品的需求（即，代替一个月的免费服务，您放弃六个月的免费服务，而人们希望获得更多），您可以添加它

One could also add weighting to the average to say, for example, that the market prefers a lower price over a bigger screen size. To imply that more of one attribute increases the desire for the product in a population (i.e instead of "one month of free service", you give away "6 months of free service", and people want it more), you could add it into the average with

percentLikesProductNow =  1 - e^(-1 * infinitelyLikedAttribute)

这从infinitelyLikedAttribute = 0时的0％到infintelyLikedAttribute = 10时的约0.005％，所以您可以尝试一下并找到一种缩放的方法该属性大约在1到10之间。这在现实生活中确实很有意义，因为有些产品如果没有免费试用版就永远不会购买。例如：Verizon Internet免费3个月。否则我可能会不参加comcast，因为我在那里只住了6个月，但是当时节省100美元是一笔不小的数目。但是，在另一个极端，如果verizon为我提供100年的免费互联网使用期限，那么在此基础上再加50年（假设它不可转让等）确实并不能增加此优惠的吸引力。

This goes from 0% at infinitelyLikedAttribute=0, to about 0.005% at infintelyLikedAttribute=10, so you could play around and find a way to "scale" that attribute to roughly be between 1 and 10. This does sort of make sense with real life, because there are products I would never have bought if they didnt have a free trial. For example: 3 free months of verizon internet. I would have probably gone with comcast otherwise, as I only was living there for 6 months, but saving 100 bucks was pretty big at the time. At the other extreme however, if verizon were to offer me 100 free years of internet, another 50 extra years on top of that (assuming it's not transferable, etc) really doesn't add much more to the attractiveness of the offer.

您总是可以将所有这些东西与随机数生成器相乘，以使其具有+/- 15％的方差，并让每个人都猜出：）

You can always multiply all of these things with a random number generator as well, to maybe give it a +/- 15% variance, and keep everyone guessing :)

我希望这甚至对远程帮助有用：）

I hope this was even remotely useful :)

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