宇宙射线:它们会影响程序的几率是多少? [英] Cosmic Rays: what is the probability they will affect a program?
问题描述
我再次进入设计评审，并遇到这样的说法:特定场景的可能性小于宇宙射线的风险"对程序造成了影响，我想到我没有最弱的事实.知道那个概率是多少.
Once again I was in a design review, and encountered the claim that the probability of a particular scenario was "less than the risk of cosmic rays" affecting the program, and it occurred to me that I didn't have the faintest idea what that probability is.
由于2 -128 是340282366920938463463374374607431768211456中的1，所以我认为我们有理由在这里冒险，即使这些计算相差数十亿...我们我相信，宇宙射线更容易把我们搞砸了."
"Since 2-128 is 1 out of 340282366920938463463374607431768211456, I think we're justified in taking our chances here, even if these computations are off by a factor of a few billion... We're way more at risk for cosmic rays to screw us up, I believe."
这个程序员正确吗? 宇宙射线撞击计算机并影响程序执行的概率是多少?
Is this programmer correct? What is the probability of a cosmic ray hitting a computer and affecting the execution of the program?
推荐答案
来自维基百科 :
Studies by IBM in the 1990s suggest that computers typically experience about one cosmic-ray-induced error per 256 megabytes of RAM per month.[15]
这意味着3.7×每月每字节10 -9 ，或1.4×每字节每秒10 -15 .如果您的程序运行1分钟并占用20 MB RAM，那么失败的可能性将是
This means a probability of 3.7 × 10-9 per byte per month, or 1.4 × 10-15 per byte per second. If your program runs for 1 minute and occupies 20 MB of RAM, then the failure probability would be
60 × 20 × 1024²
1 - (1 - 1.4e-15) = 1.8e-6 a.k.a. "5 nines"
错误检查可以帮助减少故障的后果.而且，由于Joe所说的芯片尺寸更紧凑，因此故障率可能与20年前有所不同.
Error checking can help to reduce the aftermath of failure. Also, because of more compact size of chips as commented by Joe, the failure rate could be different from what it was 20 years ago.
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